Iran Announces Oman-Hosted Gulf Conference Amid Bahrain Boycott and Navigation Calls

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently announced that Oman will soon host a regional conference involving Persian Gulf countries, focusing on the future trajectory of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian side emphasized that the conference aims to reduce tensions regarding passage through the strait through multilateral dialogue and to seek consensus among all parties on security and navigation rules. However, on the same day in the capital city of Manama, the Government of Bahrain stated that it will not send representatives to attend the conference and called on all nations to ensure the freedom of navigation in the strait without preconditions of discrimination, tolls, or permits. Bahrain's statement highlights the continuing divisions among Persian Gulf countries regarding the issue of the strait, as well as the gap in security concepts between Iran and certain Gulf states.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime energy corridors. With a width of only about 30 kilometers, it handles a daily transit volume of approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil, accounting for about 20 percent of global petroleum trade. Because the strait is situated between the Iranian mainland and the Arabian Peninsula, Iran has long viewed it as a critical defense line for national security and has repeatedly demonstrated its military capability to blockade the strait over the past few decades. In contrast, the United States and its allies have deployed fleets in the strait to ensure the smooth flow of waterways. This dual framework of security guarantees and deterrence makes the Strait of Hormuz not only a lifeline for energy transportation, but also a focal point for great power competition.

Under pressure from international sanctions and restricted energy exports in recent years, Iran has actively sought regional diplomatic breakthroughs. Since the signing of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, Iran has repeatedly proposed hosting multinational talks, hoping to ease external pressure through dialogue and reshape its influence in the Persian Gulf. Oman, as the only Persian Gulf country that did not join the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has long been known for its neutral and mediating role, having previously brokered ceasefire agreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oman's willingness to host this conference indicates its continued desire to play a bridging role on regional security issues, providing a relatively non-political discussion platform for all parties.

In contrast, Bahrain's absence reveals its concerns regarding a security framework led by Iran. Bahrain maintains a high degree of alignment in security policies with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and hosts the primary base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, resulting in a high reliance on US security guarantees. Official statements from Bahrain indicate that any transit restrictions involving discrimination, tolls, or permits could become tools for Iran to exert external pressure, further undermining the freedom of navigation. This stance not only reflects Bahrain's vigilance against Iran potentially using the strait as a political bargaining chip, but also highlights the fractures within the Gulf Cooperation Council regarding how to handle the Iranian issue.

Bahrain's refusal to participate exerts multiple impacts on the effectiveness of the conference and the regional security landscape. If Iran and other Gulf states fail to reach a substantive consensus at the conference, the shipping costs and risks in the Strait of Hormuz may still rise, further affecting the global energy market. On the other hand, Oman's role as host may lay the foundation for future multilateral dialogue, providing an opportunity for exchanges between Iran and the Gulf countries under lower political tension. Bahrain's statement serves as a reminder to the international community that unless the principles of non-discrimination, no tolls, and no permits in the strait are ensured, relevant countries may still maintain reservations or even strengthen military cooperation with the US to safeguard waterway security. In the coming weeks, the specific agenda of the conference and the list of participating countries will become important indicators for observing the security trajectory of the Persian Gulf.