Experts warn Xi-Trump summit is tactical, urging Taiwan to remain vigilant

Following the highly anticipated international meeting between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, interactions between the two global superpowers have once again become the focus of worldwide attention. Although this summit, viewed as critical to the trajectory of global geopolitics, has concluded and led to widespread interpretations that U.S.-China relations are showing some signs of short-term stabilization, scholars specializing in cross-strait and Indo-Pacific regional security hold a much more cautious view. In a recent exclusive interview with the Central News Agency, Thailand-based scholar Orendorf provided an in-depth analysis, stating bluntly that while the summit outwardly fostered an atmosphere of detente, it failed to genuinely resolve the fundamental differences that have long existed between the U.S. and China, including the critical rare earths supply chain, high-tech export restrictions, and the most sensitive Taiwan issue, with both sides maintaining their respective positions.

Orendorf further pointed out that, judging from the substantive outcomes of the summit, the current state of U.S.-China relations is more accurately described as "tactical stability" rather than a true resolution of their strategic divergence. Regarding the control of rare earth resources and critical minerals, China holds the vast majority of global mining and refining advantages, which has consistently served as an important economic chip for Beijing in its trade and technological wrestling match with the United States. Conversely, Washington continues to use export controls, chip bans, and other measures to curb China's expansion in high-tech fields, particularly artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes. Neither side made any substantive compromise during the talks on these core interests, which relate to national security and economic lifelines, demonstrating that the structural competitive posture between the U.S. and China remains unchanged.

Regarding the role played by the Taiwan issue in this highest-level U.S.-China meeting, Orendorf specifically reminded all sectors of Taiwan and government departments not to overly and optimistically interpret the brief calm following the summit, but rather to closely monitor Washington's actual future diplomatic and national security policy directions. As the frontline of democratic defense in the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has always been the most core and dangerous fuse in the U.S.-China strategic rivalry. Although successive U.S. administrations have mostly reaffirmed the "one China" policy based on the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances when handling cross-strait issues, Washington's commitment to cross-strait peace and stability, as well as its support for Taiwan's substantive defense capabilities, remains the true key to Taiwan's security.

Faced with this complex game of "surface stability and substantial confrontation" between the U.S. and China, Taiwan must maintain a high degree of sobriety and adaptability in its national security and foreign strategy. As Washington undergoes a presidential transition and dynamic adjustments to its China policy, the strength of support for Taiwan from Congress and the executive branch, the delivery schedule of arms sales, and Taiwan's role arrangement in the Indo-Pacific strategic layout will all directly affect the development of the cross-strait situation. The scholar emphasized that while the Trump-Xi meeting temporarily applied the brakes to bilateral tensions and avoided an immediate escalation of conflict, it also means that Taiwan must prepare for all possible developments within a volatile international environment, continuously strengthening its self-defense capabilities and economic resilience.

In summary, this high-profile meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders did not alter the grand pattern of long-term rivalry between the two powers, and Taiwan must by no means pin its security on short-term compromises between major nations. From supply chain security to regional geopolitics, Taiwan needs to more actively deepen cooperation with like-minded democratic nations and keep abreast of Washington's subsequent policy pulses, responding to changes with constancy to ensure national interests and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.